Julian Hodge Institute Of
Applied Macroeconomics
In May 1999, Cardiff Business School and Julian Hodge Bank announced a major new initiative, the establishment of the Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics. The aim of the Institute is to carry out research into the behaviour of the UK economy, and to study in particular its relationship with the other economies of Europe.
The Institute's first Director is Professor Patrick Minford, who is also an Economic Adviser to Julian Hodge Bank. Collaborating Professors in the School will include Lawrence Copeland, Professor of Finance, James Davidson, Professor of Econometrics, Kent Matthews, the Sir Julian Hodge Professor of Money and Banking, and David Peel, Professor of Macroeconomics. The Institute's staff of researchers will be mainly based in Cardiff Business School, which will also be the Institute's office. Research activity in the area of applied macroeconomics is already considerable; work on a variety of issues related to the topics the new research will study has been published in leading scientific journals and books. The institute will draw on the previous work in particular of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics which Professor Minford founded and which has been based mainly in Cardiff for a number of years, producing forecasts and policy commentary for the UK and other major economies.
Professor Minford commented: 'I am extremely excited about this generous grant from Sir Julian Hodge and Julian Hodge Bank. It will enable our group of professors and other researchers at the School to make great progress in understanding the important issues raised by our relationship with continental Europe and in particular the Euro.'
The main focus of planned work in the coming few years is the economies of the UK and Europe and their inter-relationship. From the UK viewpoint Europe has become a dominant policy issue. The Institute wished to deepen knowledge of just what the effects of different policies would be - monetary, financial and supply side effects.
These issues also exercise a lot of continental economists- so the Institute's work would involve mutual exchange with a number of such economists. In particular, the Institute will be involved with the European Monetary Forum, a group of professors from around northern Europe who share an interest in monetary economics and policy; the Forum has met twice in Cardiff in the past five years, and has on each occasion held an open public meeting about the Euro, the first sponsored by Glamorgan City Council. The Institute will also draw on work with other UK-based macroeconomic experts, many of whom are also members of the forum.
At present, due to previous research work conducted over two decades, the Institute group has operating models of all the major European economies, embedded in the Liverpool Multilateral World Model; and the well-know Liverpool Model of the UK. Apart from work on urgent policy questions, Institute work will aim to build up European models by moving over to quarterly data. These models would be similar to the existing quarterly UK model, which has been used in forecasting for twenty years. The aim would be to launch these as the basis for a continuous critique of European policies, as currently done in the case of UK policies. As part of its programme of work, the Institute will also be investigating new methods and applications of econometric modelling in order to improve forecasting and analytical techniques used in its models.
Other particular policy topics to be focused on would be the EMU itself, and the proposals for a 'wide ERM'; the financial markets implications of the Euro; tax harmonisation; the social chapter and the proposed harmonisation of social benefits and charges; regional policy in Europe and the way to deal with new members; and the free movement of goods and services within Europe and outside it. In all these areas the Institute will be asking its Professors and staff to consider the UK's interest and relationships with other members of the European Union.
Leading economist Sir Alan Budd delivered the third Annual Lecture.
Senior Advisor to Credit Suisse First Boston and Provost of The Queen's College, Oxford, Sir Alan Budd made his address at the Park Thistle Hotel, Cardiff, on 25th April 2002.
A former member of the Bank of England's MPC and previously Chief Economic Adviser to the Treasury and Head of the Government Economic Service, his lecture was entitled: "The Quest For Stability".
The Institute's first Annual Lecture was delivered in 2000 by Sir Alan Walters, former Chief Economic Advisor to Mrs.(now Lady) Margaret Thatcher. The lecture in 2001 was given by Professor Otmar Issing, member of the Board of the European Central Bank.
Click here for a history of past lectures, with accompanying transcripts.